Thanks for the tip!

Rapprochement across the Taiwan Straits appears to grow by leaps and bounds, as a Chinese charity group will visit Taiwan to deliver its philanthropy by donating NTD500 million to the disadvantaged families on the island. Its moves did spur much fanfare and mixed reaction.

China economy has shifted into higher gears, hitching a double-digit record-breaking ride and already overtaking Japan as global second largest. Its prosperity allows it not only to join hands with EU for a financial bailout, but also lend a hand to its “fellow” Taiwanese. While skepticism about its motives is rampant, we should laud the slender lifeline to those financially-pinched, particularly ahead of lunar new year holidays.

There shouldn’t be any gridlock or row in both-sides political relation, a hope only expected to come real after China regards Taiwan as a de facto sovereign entity. More donations will be welcomed, though, to make more headways in the relation. After all, the island has grappled with tons of domestic problems: still annoying jobless rate, weakening national fiscal coffers, widening income gap, runaway inflation, and ongoing dispute about mayoral elections results last Dec.

The government has claimed it has done a heckuva good homework, cutting jobless rate below the 5% mark to 4.67% last Dec., translating into a total of 520,000 people out of job currently. However, the fact about a rising hiring of temporary workers, a system seemingly adopted increasingly by local firms, to nearly 1 million will overshadow the government-guided glee. The rate might be even soaring if excluding the figures of temp workers. Against the backdrop, continued outflow of capital and lack of new factories will additionally knock wind out of labor market in the offing. Besides an embellishing act, what else can the government map out to prop up the embattled market?

Couple weeks ago, Hon Hai Precision firmly pledged its vow to expand presence in China by recruiting 180,000 persons for its newly-set factory in ZenZhou city, Honan province, China. That is a lavish and heady number, in a sharp contrast to its snail pace of job creation in Taiwan. The global-caliber electronic maker years ago once announced plan to set up a software industrial park in Kaoshiung city, Taiwan. That establishment, if coming on stream, was widely viewed to unleash a nifty, widespread ripple effect through the tech sector, but was ultimately proved to be much ado about nothing. It’s heartening to see some big-name firms still headquartered on the island. Alas !

The island has made noteworthy progress to lure overseas firms to issue TDR, with more waiting in the wings as reported. Though enlarging listing numbers on Taiwan stock market can help its course apace to evolve into a so-called financial hub in Asia, such a lift in the long haul only spells well for those upcoming listed firm which can borrow at a lower cost in Taiwan with their listing records and market prices appraised as gauges for their respective bank collaterals. Partly attracting them to float TDR is due to relatively higher liquidity in Taiwan market amid no requirement to build new plants here in Taiwan. A possible scenario staged by them to further drain capital out of Taiwan, much common during market's preceding heydays, has loomed with little chances to be ruled out.

We need its capital inflow as well as cash donation, now that China is red-hot in economy. It is not a bad omen at all when our friends get richer. Plus, we need a self-sustaining rebounding path both in economy and job market. Thanks to Chinese billionaires, we should sincerely wish this is a start instead of a blip in the new trend for them to send money inwardly.  There is no need to be unnerved to embrace China's paltry-deemed, charitable money warmly, at least it sounds an alarm to Taiwan government which would otherwise remain as a snoozer.  If everything goes well, will their donations make you feel great?

Who'll stop the rain?

---- Long as I remember, The rain been coming down.

Clouds of mystery pouring, Confusion on the grounds.

Good man through the ages, Trying to find the sun.

And I wonder, Still I wonder, Who’ll stop the rain? ----
   Quoted from lyrics of song – Who’ll stop the Rain 
    Written by John Fogerty and performed by Creedence Clearwater Revival

The lunar year of Tiger is about to slip astern, leaving in its tail many sidelined savers bemoaning bygone yields and the run-ups seen in local stock and property markets. The market mood remains chipper and investors seem to prep for an extended resilence, as we head into the year of Rabbit.

So fundamentally sizzling as it showed, Taiwan ’s export order hit a new monthly high in Dec. driving the  total also to a record high of USD406.7 billion in 2010. That wrapped up a hefty 26% annual gain last year, paving the way for a bullish case of job creations in future, as predicted by government. The buoyance also reflects Taiwan ’s rising reliance upon China which for the first time sent annual order worth over USD100 billion to the island.

However, the bounce belies a weakening result on the front of already-inbound investment, which shrank 20% to USD3.8 billion in 2010, a year also seeing a dipping already-outbound capital flight to USD2.8 billion, down 6.6%. Meanwhile, there is a stark difference gap among approved mutual investment across the Taiwan Straits. Taiwan last year alone greenlighted USD12.2 billion investment projects, up a significant 102% YoY, in China. Coincidentally, since the counterpart was allowed to set up its footholds here in Taiwan in June 1999, the accumulated approved figure for Chinese investment reached a tepid USD131 million as of Dec. 2010. The meager amount will assist them to ramp up moves to tap non-high-tech industries such as travel services offices or wholly-owned restaurants here in Taiwan. It's kind of them at least in a sense that their targets might be pertaining to the green tech. All told, the ebbing inward investment suggests ongoing challenges for those Taiwan lumpens who long for better days to come. Who’ll stop this seemingly persistent exodus of Taiwan capital, or fuel a U-turn?

It was euphoric, though not necessarily strong enough to drum up investors’ fresh enthusiasm, for stock market to absorb news that a heavyweight foreign investment bank upgraded Taiwan’s equity investment rating from a neutral to overweight position in its emerging market index. Yet, the market turned decidedly lower Friday. Whether Taiwan may merit such an upward notch or not, foreigners already knew it and had posted a net buy of NTD52 billion worth of stocks in past 10 sessions. Deja vu ! Behind the headlines lurks a likely“pump-and-dump” scam. Who’ll stop this kind of repetition of success among them?

Taiwan stock market has been in sync with its global peers to rise out of ashes, scaling a 31-month high Wednesday, with the index crushing the 9,000 mark, a level it flirted with in these two sessions. Guarded optimism should be kept in mind, as the rally, as mostly interpreted, is prompted by hot money. While a sharp retreat may not be in the cards, an extended basing period will likely be required before it finds firmer technical footing. An all-out net sale among foreigners. closely-watched recently by market, will however usher in a broad-based pullback.  

Potential firmness in Taiwan economy will be on the horizon, if more fixed-assets investment, excluding that focusing on real estate, dribbles into the island. For most of the poor and lumpens, belt-tightening is the common rule at present.  Relentless rain keeps trickling down islandwide, but it doesn't pour. Confusion is still on the grounds, and cloud of mystery hangs over the gunshot against politically-influential Mr. Lien SenWen. We should leave behind domestic political quarrel which appreciablly turns even more disgusting and deceiving. 

Please just pay attention to who’ll stop the rain, and who’ll help those jobless dig themselves out of financial troubles?   

Hail to Gov't Efforts

The argument surrounding the iffy policy of preferential interest rate to be enjoyed by government retirees seems to mercifully come to a close, after the government announced to reduce the upceiling for their bank deposits. So, are you ready for a brighter future?

We should hail its firming stance to trim the level, undercutting national expense by a comfortable NTD30 million from an aggregate NTD4 billion increment arising from the proposed upward rate revision. In essence, it’s absolutely not bad news to those beneficiaries, as it’s better than a cancellation. This lowering will help the government, as it wishes, avoid a ferocious public backlash, and also mend the social rips between the civil servants and the general public. However, debate continues to rage in full forces on TV political talk shows, with some calling for a fair treatment which may not materialize soon.

It had been a remote memory to see a humming economy in Taiwan . The country once glittered with decades of inreasing personal income, making it one of the best examples among emerging countries. I was proud, when I attended a seminar in New York city years ago. A teacher praised Taiwan ’s remarkable enonomic growth, with foreign exchange reserves jumping ahead of the pack. Such an outperformance was printed in many university textbooks. I felt quite happy and pleased as being a Taiwanese when roaming around NYC streets.

If history can repeat itself, and Formosa can recoup what it lost these past 10 years, some can be eligible for that 18% rate without any doubt. But things remain uncertain, reflected by the fact that more big-name listed companies, such as TSMC and AUO, have planned to shift their production lines, albeit not completely, toward our neighboring friendly country. China has soaked away lots of cash from Taiwan, with no sign of a reversal. Chinese tourists did fly to the island in droves, boding well for an economic recovery as stated by the government which however fails to induce China ’s capital to establish factories here.

For the blue-collar workers, it’s sad to say it's their own matters for suffering a shrinking income while coping with a further rising inflation. It appears that there’s no compromise at present between civil servants and the public, a phenomenon resembling a long-standing tug-of-war between KMT and DPP. The government can look past the poll suggesting most refuse to swallow the new bill, but can’t shrug off labor woes and outcry of the poor. Taiwan is currently licking its wounds, either political or economical, given that there's still no light at the end of tunnel.    

Where has all the justice gone?

The cold front keeps slapping the island, with raindrops falling on a city that seems to never sleep. 

 Among some people, the sleepless nights are caused by the very fact that the island is turning increasingly politically-orientated along with deceptive economic indicators. Some can’t sleep well for not having job, including me who tried several rounds of job searching these past few months. Therefore, it’s widely seen that lots of middle-age jobless persons rushed to become taxi drivers.

Every time when I am out toward Taipei downtown, I always take a taxi. It hurt me when I had a chat with the drivers. Most of them, forced to retire either under pressure or their companines' relocations to China, said there is decreasing job opportunity at present on Formosa , thereby driving a taxi is the last resort for their survival. I agreed, and hated myself not able to drive. Another reason for the city to remain awake is a rising number of clubs, where young girls, with some even owning master degrees, can find a living.

Limelight turns more splendid on the LinSen North road. Taipei city is on track to copy Taichung-like style full with sex and pistols. Some law enforcement officials, sadly and needless to say, look willing to allow the clubs to welcome those drug-using customers, whom in the A-Bian administration were banned. These officials need money or the so-called kick-back to support their families. Reasonable, doesn’t it sound? Coincidentally, there is no wonder for the club runners mostly to prefer the KMT.

Taiwanese should praise the KMT-ruled government for recovering the economy which grew 9.98% last year. Viva !  Viva !  With this backdrop, civil servants are entitled to a wage hike after missing that for five straight years. If that is the case, why did Taiwan report less tax income for the past two years? That was because traders took in orders in Taiwan yet exported products in China , which is the end-beneficiary to collect the tax revenue. Well, the KMT unfortunately fails to know the truth, be it purposely or not.

More-than-800,000 people would applaud the KMT party for its latest measures to court civil servants, at the expense of other society groups which are, however, lucky enough to also enjoy a hike but in prices of food, gasoline and new houses sales. The DPP has been at a loss to deal with the KMT scheme, let alone launching a fight-back or street protest. This weak-turning opposition party, as it appears now, will choose to wait patiently to have its day and win in future elections. That will come, of course, only after the KMT does provoke the whole public or resume corruption as years ago.

Chinese history is marked partly by drastic revenge at the turn of each dynasty, and that brusing battle was once again repeated here in Taiwan as reflected by a seemingly continuous jail term for A-Bian. At last, I am deeply worry about the feasibility for some to step up restriction against speech freedom, which the DPP advocated and contributed most to Taiwan democracy. 

Fairness is no more in the air of Taipei city, neither justice. Nobody, sleepless as he is, will sing the song titled “where have all the flowers gone?”  We should sing together for the new version – Where has all the justice gone?

Miss Tsai Dealt a Blow for 18% Preferrential Interest Rate

Criticism builds up against Miss Tsai IngWen, as the KMT attempts to turn the corner for its latest “reform” beneficial to civil servants, whom are widely blamed unexpectedly. Lien Chan is innocent on the other hand.

The chairwoman, one of beneficiaries for 18% preferential interest rate, is under attack by KMT legislators who slammed her for intending to overlook while enjoying the handsome interest income. It’s completely her faults to derail the KMT’s hard works to take care of the so-called weak poor society segment – civil servants. The DPP should be responsible for a future failure, if any, of KMT’s efforts to reduce national expenditure under the new policy.

This newly public spat is something like the feud between the peasant and royalty, similar to that occurring often in Chinese history. Taiwan has suffered a shortfall of tax income coupled with a widening wealth gap among people. A M-shape of society structure has emerged significantly. Despite those, the ruling KMT, for the sake of cementing its leadership in future, will keep laying out policies favorable to its supporters.

People must assume their duties to promote Taiwan at all, as claimed by the KMT. In the past, civil servants faced less income than the general in a booming economy, therefore a higher interest income for them was justified. Yet, the island’s economy has turned sour, with no more reason to warrant that hike. If the KMT’s high-ranking officials remain stubborn about the recent moves, they can dole out their money coming from selling KMT’s enormous assets stolen by it after its retreat to Formosa , or ask Communist China to pay. After all, Ma IngJueo now is in loves with China leaders.

Civil servants are not subject to be criticized for the KMT’s kindness, honestly to say. They certainly can enjoy that, without worrying about a likely scenario for Taiwan to fall into a sovereign crisis as Greek, Ireland or Portugal . The KMT can squander fiscally, if only to grab more votes, but is needed to create new jobs or more factories. It’s really really sad to see the elderly collect the wasted and recycled materials on the streets in a cold, wintry night.

Nonetheless, that misery is not caused by KMT, but simply Taiwanese voters who can become the Red Army during the DPP’s governance. Until now, where’s the army? Thanks God, at least we have a ROC President with US green card !!!   Meanwhile, Miss Tsai IngWen should be on alert as her private data will be leaked further to the public.  

Weak-turning DPP

The weather is cold, temperature is dropping, and people feel chilly and depressed.

It is not reasonable to bash the KMT about the controversial 18% preferential interest rate to retired public servant for their bank deposits. We can't criticize the KMT party for passing the new draft which restores the level. It's not just the KMT's unilateral idea to OK the upward revision, but the DPP seems to follow suit, deliberately aiming to avoid a fierce onslaught on the issue. The DPP has performed in a way more timid and cautious, seemingly tiptoeing on the edge of a cliff. The party itself in recent years has been in a chaotic phase, merely bringing out hollow talk with no action.

The DPP just kept quiet when the rate was passed in July, not turning angry or drawing people to the street for protest. That's because of the fact that the party also has its members working as civil servants. It was worry about a loss in the mayoral elections too. Therefore, a general principle can also apply to the DPP - a political party cares about nothing but its own benefit and political advantage.

Unlike its former founders, the DPP's current politicians are sheepish and widely-divided within the party itself, not able to stave off any event unfavorable to the whole public. There's no more DPP legislator acting like Chu KaoZen when he opposed the KMT's intolerable proposals by fighting violently in the past. Meanwhile, there isn't any DPP-led street protest. French students could show aggressive protest simply for a rise of tuition fee, why can't we?

That's true the DPP owns minority seats in the Legislative Yuan, yet it has other ways including street protest to demonstrate its intention to protect people welfare or a fair system. Even the preferential rate is deemed as outrageous, the KMT has done a good job to favor its supporters. Nothing encouraging appears so far for the DPP to react, except its agitating remarks on the TV political talk shows. By the way, it already forgot to probe the truth behind the gunshot of Lien ShenWen.

Before we call the revision as an unfair affair driven by the KMT, we must blame the DPP for being too weak, silent and gentle. and even worse, for pretending it is innocent and unknown about the resurgent 18% rate. The KMT is lousy and mighty, for sure, yet the DPP is disappointing. Let's just simply put it this way - the KMT is a devil goliath, while the DPP is a chicken now.

Er.....Er...... May God really really bless Taiwan !

Happy new year for 2011!

Happy New Year to you for 2011!

Yes, we got plenty of reasons to cheer for that as ROC barrels into 100 years old.

One bright spot is that the KMT has moved closer with Communist China, which has sent rounds of its people visiting Formosa , and both-sides tie improved quite significantly as said by President Ma IngJue. Yet, not to mention that they have long made inroads into the island for seeking jobs, did the inbound China tourists really spend enough money to boost Taiwan economy?

Under this better cross-straits situation, more Taiwanese big firms have pumped money into China , investing with capital of no return to the island in future as it appears. So, people lost jobs as there isn't much decent great job opportunity with lack of new plants set up domestically. We can’t lash out at those firms because easy money abounds over there anyway. Taiwan faces slight chances to lure them back.

We have to celebrate the new year by thanking police's hard works in cracking down the crimes, especially in Taichung , just as they declared a victory against the gangsters. Also, the uncertainty about the gunshot of Lien SenWen was settled, proved only a mistake by the gunman. Lien was so lucky and got nothing to do with the outcome of the elections. That might be upbeat, justified enough for us to thank God!

We must stand for whatever disgrace brought by PRC toward ROC, especially in the issue of national flag. Most have put it that there's definitely no Taiwan’s sovereign entity in Ma's mind, as he is driven by a final reunification bias with China to fulfill his father's will. Taiwanese also have to feel satisfied about the falling jobless rate and jumping wage income, based on government statistics. Our monthly income has averaged over NTD40,000 per capita, large enough to raise a family. Everyone here seems to live in a happy life, truly to say.

To see a giddy firework for the KMT's 100th birthday is very touching and exciting. So wonderful and sparkling as it is, the glitz won't cost too much to hurt government’s social welfare program to help those low-income or jobless persons. However, they might think it strange why government wanted to spend money in that, which was ever seen by the DPP when at the helm of Taiwan . Anyway, they should forgive the KMT because it's the party's birthday and it just tracked closely with the DPP’s prior moves. A period of 100 years is long, deserving a great party show, though which only serves to swell singers' pockets, yet none to people.

People, who watched the stupendous firework, should also ignore the pain and depression caused by skyrocketing houses prices, heavy work load and low wage. This is the Formosa , and the future will be in for a better shape, if ruled by the KMT as affirmed by it. This kind of rosy picture will be painted by any ruling party to soothe and comfort people. Therefore, a resurfacing corruption is nothing, with the alleged scandals of Hsin Shen crossover road or Taipei Flora Expo impacting the nation's fiscal budget very little. Just forget the scandals, when people rigging these won't tell us much details and the media will not release the truth.

The DPP's call for mayoral reelection in northern 3 main cities is stupid, with slim chances to win back the seats. That's because the juridical system is still reined by KMT, so to speak. Whoever gets the political power gets a final say, doesn't it? No wonder for A-Bian to remain in jail, maybe for a lifetime. Miss Tsai IngWen is blamed for creating national conflict by activating the move. She just destroyed the island's harmony, rebuked by the KMT which has always said it loves Taiwan as much as it can as most of native Taiwanese. Just trailing the lead of KMT, which will revitalize the island under the ECFA. With this agreement, all will benefit, for sure.

A question remains - will the firework really make you feel satisfied and happy? That is only short-lived, and cost consumption. Mr. Ma IngJue always voiced he is a follower of Mr. Chian ZinKuo, but the former tends fo forget the hard works of Chian by constructing infrastructure revving up Taiwan economy. Besides, Chian was much more cost-conscious as well as anti-corruption. Forgive Ma IngJue, as he likes jogging - good for his health.

Happy New Year. Never give up for Taiwan 's democracy as that is the long, winding road of no return. Hopes still exist, however, and most analysts opined the stock market will shoot through the roof in coming months, with the upside potential over the 10,000 psychological mark. Great! Believe it or not!  To say the truth, I am a contrarian, not along with the herd at least for the moment.

Remember the song - where have all the flowers gone? also sung by Joan Baez. That's the song which might reflect my mind.

Good Luck.