Who'll stop the rain?

---- Long as I remember, The rain been coming down.

Clouds of mystery pouring, Confusion on the grounds.

Good man through the ages, Trying to find the sun.

And I wonder, Still I wonder, Who’ll stop the rain? ----
   Quoted from lyrics of song – Who’ll stop the Rain 
    Written by John Fogerty and performed by Creedence Clearwater Revival

The lunar year of Tiger is about to slip astern, leaving in its tail many sidelined savers bemoaning bygone yields and the run-ups seen in local stock and property markets. The market mood remains chipper and investors seem to prep for an extended resilence, as we head into the year of Rabbit.

So fundamentally sizzling as it showed, Taiwan ’s export order hit a new monthly high in Dec. driving the  total also to a record high of USD406.7 billion in 2010. That wrapped up a hefty 26% annual gain last year, paving the way for a bullish case of job creations in future, as predicted by government. The buoyance also reflects Taiwan ’s rising reliance upon China which for the first time sent annual order worth over USD100 billion to the island.

However, the bounce belies a weakening result on the front of already-inbound investment, which shrank 20% to USD3.8 billion in 2010, a year also seeing a dipping already-outbound capital flight to USD2.8 billion, down 6.6%. Meanwhile, there is a stark difference gap among approved mutual investment across the Taiwan Straits. Taiwan last year alone greenlighted USD12.2 billion investment projects, up a significant 102% YoY, in China. Coincidentally, since the counterpart was allowed to set up its footholds here in Taiwan in June 1999, the accumulated approved figure for Chinese investment reached a tepid USD131 million as of Dec. 2010. The meager amount will assist them to ramp up moves to tap non-high-tech industries such as travel services offices or wholly-owned restaurants here in Taiwan. It's kind of them at least in a sense that their targets might be pertaining to the green tech. All told, the ebbing inward investment suggests ongoing challenges for those Taiwan lumpens who long for better days to come. Who’ll stop this seemingly persistent exodus of Taiwan capital, or fuel a U-turn?

It was euphoric, though not necessarily strong enough to drum up investors’ fresh enthusiasm, for stock market to absorb news that a heavyweight foreign investment bank upgraded Taiwan’s equity investment rating from a neutral to overweight position in its emerging market index. Yet, the market turned decidedly lower Friday. Whether Taiwan may merit such an upward notch or not, foreigners already knew it and had posted a net buy of NTD52 billion worth of stocks in past 10 sessions. Deja vu ! Behind the headlines lurks a likely“pump-and-dump” scam. Who’ll stop this kind of repetition of success among them?

Taiwan stock market has been in sync with its global peers to rise out of ashes, scaling a 31-month high Wednesday, with the index crushing the 9,000 mark, a level it flirted with in these two sessions. Guarded optimism should be kept in mind, as the rally, as mostly interpreted, is prompted by hot money. While a sharp retreat may not be in the cards, an extended basing period will likely be required before it finds firmer technical footing. An all-out net sale among foreigners. closely-watched recently by market, will however usher in a broad-based pullback.  

Potential firmness in Taiwan economy will be on the horizon, if more fixed-assets investment, excluding that focusing on real estate, dribbles into the island. For most of the poor and lumpens, belt-tightening is the common rule at present.  Relentless rain keeps trickling down islandwide, but it doesn't pour. Confusion is still on the grounds, and cloud of mystery hangs over the gunshot against politically-influential Mr. Lien SenWen. We should leave behind domestic political quarrel which appreciablly turns even more disgusting and deceiving. 

Please just pay attention to who’ll stop the rain, and who’ll help those jobless dig themselves out of financial troubles?