9.29.2011

The Boys of Summer

                             Nobody on the road, nobody on the beach. 
                             I feel it in the air, the summers out of reach
                             Empty lake, empty streets, the sun goes down alone.
                             I'm driving by your house, though i know that you not home
                                   
Quoted from song lyrics - The Boys of Summer      
                                            Performed by Don Henley

We are about to say goodbye to September. The summer is officially nearing an end as a cold front is expected to hit the island soon, likely bringing rain and sending temperature dropping. Marking the start of a wet and chilly season, October has been traditionally associated with irregularities and zig-zags in global stock markets.  

My initial experience about facing a crashing stock market gyration dated back to Monday, 19 Oct. 1987. The Black Monday freefall saw the DJIA dive by 508 points to 1,738 (down 22.61%). As a member of Taiwan pioneering group mainly comprising securities analysts to receive training abroad, I went to NYC for the first time in Oct 1987 to attend a 6-week financial seminar held by NYIF located on Pine Street. Everything was new to me - not just the financial knowledge but also the high-rising skyscrapers on that bustling city.

Teachers of NYIF were panic on that date,  in and out of the classroom throughout the day. I couldn’t catch the shivers they showed as I was young (25 years old) with very little sense of market ups-and-downs. The NYSE was crowded with TV reporters, and someone shouted on Wall Street: “Look out, Superman is falling!” I didn’t laugh, neither did I say anything. My Taiwanese classmate said he should have bought a camera to take some pictures for the event. I did what he intended to do in the ensuing days. I still remember the grim looking on teachers faces, and feel sorry not able to address the problems for them, or help them find the “X Factor”.

Couple days later, I went to a big bookstore on Broadway in a shiny afternoon when I skipped the class. After picking up a pocket-size, paperback book named as “How to make money on Wall Street”, I lined up for the payment. A guy standing behind me asked, “is this a new version?” I was mum again, just smiling. That question is still hanging over my mind until now. I scooped up a lot of books during the stay in NYC, lurking at bookstores as often as standing at the top floor of World Trade Center. When the autumn is approaching, I am always in a “New York State of Mind”.

Global stock markets have demonstrated their surprising strength to climb a wall of worry these past 3 years, shrugging off tons of disturbing news that included sovereign debt in Europe, murky economic outlook in US and overwhelming threat of inflation. Fears might persist about a bear market, which will very likely take its roots in next 6 months and descend a slope of hope. History just repeats itself - what goes up must go down and the law of gravity can apply to any financial market. In coming months, investors might well be smothered by reports concerning how low the market will go. But if there is headwind or no wind, just stay ashore with higher cash position.  
A bottom is confirmed to set off a new bullish run in a scenario that prices survive the retest to previous lows on declined volume. As they say, “market bottoms are a process, not an event.” One can be brave enough to catch falling knives for now, a sure thing one can do if on solid balance sheet.  Others might hope October won't live up to its bad reputation as a freaky and ruthless month. 


PS. Trees are difficulty to paint as it always requires deeper patience.  
Good Luck !  
Link to The Boys of Summer -

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